The global population growth is projected to increase from 7.2 billion to 9.6 billion from 2013 to 2050 (Wimberly, Sohl, Liu, & Lamsal, 2015), which would escalate anthropogenic pressure on forest resources. Global forest cover destruction has resulted in augmented GHG emissions from 12 per cent to 17 per cent (Van der Werf et al., 2009) due to shunting of the carbon sequestration process. Deforestation in Southeast Asia alone has resulted in ∼1.4 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 net emissions of Carbon (C) between 1990 and 2010 (Houghton et al., 2012). Deforestation and subsequent land use changes will have irretrievable impacts on ecosystem goods and services apart from the decline of carbon sequestration capabilities and an increase in atmospheric GHG emissions. This would also alter the climate and hydrologic regimes that would in turn threaten water and food security. Large-scale LULC changes and loss of forest cover in the study region (BNP with a 5-km buffer) are due to urban sprawl with irresponsible and unplanned urbanization processes in Bangalore. The city witnessed urbanization with the unrealistic increase of paved surfaces by 1,028 per cent from 1973 to 2018 with loss of vegetation (88%) and 79 per cent of water bodies (Halmy & Gessler, 2015; Ramachandra & Bharath, 2016; Ramachandra, Setturu et al., 2012; Ramachandra, Bharath et al., 2012). Uncontrolled and uncoordinated urban growth was noticed subsequent to globalization and the push towards industrialization in recent decades. Drivers of urbanization include political and economic in various proportions. Urban sprawl already has telling impacts evident from resource scarcity and enhanced instances of human-animal conflicts, which necessitate the restoration of the integrity of ecologically sensitive buffer regions with the afforestation of degraded forest patches with native species of flora and immediate eviction of unauthorized occupations of forests and common lands (grazing lands, etc.). Various spatially explicit models have been developed in recent years to simulate transitions in LULC, thereby enabling the advanced visualization of dynamic phenomena such as urban growth. The CA-Markov model adopted for the visualization of LULC changes highlights the likely ecological and environmental implications in the absence of appropriate policy interventions for the conservation of BNP.

Visualization through CA-Markov (Briassoulis, 2000; Keshtkar & Voigt, 2016) was comparable to actual growth (2015). Predicted LU changes for 2021 and 2027 have provided valuable insights into landscape dynamics and likely implications. Non-agent-based (AGB) models however have drawbacks of the non-inclusion of agents and in particular human decision-making (Briassoulis, 2000; Keshtkar & Voigt, 2016; Truong et al., 2015). Compared to this, AGB dynamics are well conceived for conditional decision-making of nonlinear behaviour by rules that distinguish them from mathematically continuous models such as CA-Markov (Brown, Riolo, Robinson, North, & Rand, 2005; Li, Oyana, & Mukwaya, 2016). AGB involves the identification of agents which have the ability to satisfy internal goals through actions based on a set of rules of a temporal framework within which those agents perform actions but computationally intensive ones (Daniel, Frid, Sleeter, & Fortin, 2016; Mozumder, Tripathi, & Losiri, 2016; Nicholls, Amelung, & Student, 2016; Rand et al., 2003). The multi-agent models with human perceptions, which encapsulate hierarchically the behaviours of biophysical drivers, will increase the precision of prediction

BNP, a part of Western Ghats and a repository of unique flora and fauna with biological, social, hydrological and ecological significance, needs immediate measures with prudent biodiversity conservation policies. Due to water and food security in peninsular India with perennial water resources, the Western Ghats is aptly known as the water tower for peninsular India. Any imbalances in the ecologically sensitive regions would not only affect the local population but also threaten global climate. The community-based conservation (CBC) path involving local stakeholders is crucial to conserving biological diversity and sustaining natural resources. The involvement of local stakeholders in decision-making and enhancing the livelihood prospects of the dependent population would help in the protection of forest ecosystems. The local community’s knowledge and the experience of wildlife and their habitats would help in strengthening conservation endeavours. Ecologically hazardous activities such as mining, the expansion of agriculture and horticulture in the core area must be restricted immediately to protect wildlife and flora. Incentives to support organic farming, setting up agro-processing industries, establishing cottage industries to support local livelihoods and setting up fodder farms to support local livestock population would help in minimizing forest degradation. Steps have to be taken to enrich forests impoverished of wild animal fodder plants. Appropriate cropping has to be encouraged with strict regulations to minimize instances of human-animal conflicts (Radha Devi, 2003). Other conservation and awareness initiatives include involving education institutions to document biodiversity in the neighbourhood (at the village level); eco clubs at all schools; students to take part in environment monitoring (part of the curriculum), the development of forest nurseries of local species through the active participation of women and incentives to villagers for conservation and so on. Adopting the integrated clustering development of villages for inclusive growth is suggested to promote eco-friendly, local resources, local skills and manpower-based thematic developmental programmes through a stronger foundation for sustainable growth (Ramachandra, Hegde, Subash Chandran, Tejaswini, & Vishnumayananda, 2015).