1Energy and Wetlands Research Group, Centre for Ecological Sciences [CES],
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore – 560012, India.
2 Centre for Sustainable Technologies [CST], Indian Institute of Science.
3Centre for Infrastructure, Sustainable Transport and Urban Planning [CiSTUP],
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012.
*Corresponding author:
trv@iisc.ac.in
Conclusion
The assessment of land use changes with carbon dynamics demonstrates the potential of
ecologically fragile Western
Ghats in mitigating global warming through carbon sequestration. LU analysis reveals the
loss of evergreen forest
cover from 16 to 11% (1985-2018) with the increase in anthropogenic pressure due to
unplanned developmental
activities.
The simulation of likely changes depicts the region will have merely 10% evergreen cover (in
protected
areas) with agriculture (17%), plantations (40%) and built-up area (5%). The WG forests stores
1.23 MGg of carbon
(both above ground biomass and soil). The annual increment of 37507.3 Gg highlights the role of
forests in lowering
carbon at the regional level. The temporal LU and climate variables responses have revealed
reduction of rainy days
(4 days) in Kerala and Tamil Nadu part of WG with increase in Maharashtra. The regions in
8-12
0 latitude
are experiencing an increase of 0.5-1
0C mean temperature. The results indicate the
future trends of
deforestation and associated carbon stock loss, would induce higher instances of flooding and
drought due to changes
in the climate. This analysis demonstrates that land uses (land cover) in the Western Ghats
landscape have played a
decisive role in moderating microclimatic conditions over spatial and temporal scales.
Analyses of rainfall dynamics reveal a declining trend in southern Western Ghats, while an
increasing trend in the
northern Western Ghats. Across the agro climatic zones at 1 degree latitude, Ghats and the
transition zones in the
south (Kerala, Tamil Nadu) shows decrease in rainfall ranging between 40 mm to 650 mm in the
century with a decline
of rainy days of 5 to 10 days, whereas the north (Maharashtra, Gujarat), showed increasing
trends of rainfall
ranging from 120 to 430 mm and rainy days by 3 to 6 days both at Ghats and transition zones
between Ghats and
plains. Similar trend analyses of temperature, show an increasing trend in temperatures all
across the Western
Ghats. Analysis at one degree latitude reveals Grid wise analysis an increasing trend
ranging between
0.31oC to 1.1oC in the Coast. Similar trends are observed in Ghats
(0.1 oC to 1.0
oC) and transition zones (0.1 oC to 0.8 oC) with the
highest changes in the south,
followed by the north, while, the central western Ghats showed low variability in the last
century.
The reduction of rainfall or rainy days and an increase in temperature (dryness) can affect
carbon stock in the
region. The farmers of peninsular India would face the threat of food security with erratic
monsoon and lack of
water. This necessitates immediate implementation of carbon capture (with afforestation of
degraded landscapes with
native species, regulations of LULC changes) and de-carbonisation (through large scale
implementation of renewable
and sustainable energy alternatives) through stringent norms towards (i) protection of
ecologically fragile regions,
(ii) dis-incentives for continued higher emissions based on ‘polluter pays’ principle and
(iii) incentives for
reduced emission. The WG has sequestered carbon worth INR 100 billion ($1.4 billion) at $30
per tonne of carbon. The
analysis emphasize the need for alternate development paradigm with the focus on
conservation of ecologically
fragile ecosystems considering the ecosystems’ pivotal role in carbon capture,
de-carbonisation, moderating climate,
sustaining water and supporting people’s livelihood. Policy measures to mitigate global
warming necessitates
acceleration of de-carbonization measures including (i) stringent norms for carbon intensity
in the industrial
processes and transportation sectors, (ii) implementation of innovative carbon pricing in
agreement with the
internationally agreed comprehensive pricing mechanisms, (iii) shift from linear economy to
circular economy through
stringent regulations on recycling and reduction of wastes, energy and materials efficiency,
(iv) arresting
deforestation through stringent regulation on large scale land use changes in the
ecologically fragile regions.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to (i) ENVIS Division, the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate
Change, Government of India
(grant: CES/TVR/DE007), (ii) Indian Institute of Science (IISc/R1011) for the financial and
infrastructure support.
We acknowledge the support of Forest Department (Karnataka Forest Department), Government of
Karnataka for giving
necessary permissions to undertake ecological research in Central Western Ghats. We thank
Vishnu Mukri and Srikanth
Naik for the assistance during field data collection.
Data and Accessibility
Data used in the analyses are compiled from the field. Data is anlysed and organized in the
form of table, which are
presented in the manuscript. Also, synthesized data are archived at
http://wgbis.ces.iisc.ernet.in/energy/water/paper/researchpaper2.html#ce