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Modelling urban dynamics in rapidly urbanising Indian cities

a Energy & Wetlands Research Group, Center for Ecological Sciences [CES], Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka 560 012, India
b Centre for Sustainable Technologies (astra), Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka 560 012, India
c Centre for infrastructure, Sustainable Transportation and Urban Planning [CiSTUP], Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka 560 012, India
d RCGSIDM, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721302, India

http://wgbis.ces.iisc.ernet.in/energy/

Conculsion

Advance geo-visualisation of urban growth would aid in decision making towards sustainable cities with basic infrastructure and amenities. Temporal remote sensing data with GIS helps in mapping and understanding of urban dynamics. Identification of regional factors that are most likely to influence a land-usechanges has improved the accuracy of prediction. The predictions of land use/cover changes through CA-Markov model suggest a continual increase in urban settlements with a decline in local natural vegetation cover in all the regions considered for the analysis. Use of fuzzy decisions and Analytical Hierarchal Process in modelling has enabled incorporation of human decisions for addressing spatial problems. Fuzzy proved to be particularly effective for characterising decisions based on various spatial agents and land use spatial unit for each decade.

All cities grew during post 1990, from the city centre towards the outskirts. Model suggests that post 2010 the growth would be more likely infilling, suggesting a complete concretisation of core area and further would spread beyond its boundaries that necessities an immediate look at natural balances and planning in terms of provision of basic amenities to all stakeholders. Chennai and Mumbai floods are the warning bells to the city administrators for planned interventions to mitigate implications of urban growth. Further the recent episodes of urban floods in hear of Delhi depict the status of planning of these citing and again cited a warning bell for proper utilisation of spaces and balancing of other land use types are immediate necessity. Visualised output has consolidated various major probabilities of current scenarios. It has showcased development in the regions and suggests that in next ten years these would be the urban hubs. It could strongly bring out the fact that other natural resources are being depleted in terms of urban growth. Vegetation ratio to human population in major cities suggest a dismal figure that would bring in more infectious diseases along with health issues among human problem (Ramachandra et al., 2014a). These visualisations must be considered as an important need to build up policy decisions that would influence further growth of these regions. Visualisation of urban growth considering the agents helps in providing better decisions Analytical Hierarchal Process accounted the future urbanisation state of each city was weighed based on factors that is likely to influence the growth. The adopted technique being spatially and temporally interactive model helped in visualising spatial patterns of urbanisation with insights.

Citation : H.A. Bharath, M.C. Chandan, S. Vinay, T.V. Ramachandra, 2018. Modelling urban dynamics in rapidly urbanising Indian cities. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, Volume 19, Issue 2, December 2016, Pages 175-193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2016.09.001

    * Corresponding author

    H.A. Bharath
    Ranbir and Chitra Gupta School of Infrastructure
    Design and Management (RCGSIDM), Twin Science Block, IIT-Kharagpur, Kharagpur,
    West Bengal 721302, India.
    E-mail : bharathhaithal@gmail.com
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