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Prediction of Spatial Patterns of Urban Dynamics in Pune, India
Bharath. H. Aithal1,2, Vinay S1, Venugopal Rao K.3, T.V. Ramachandra*1,2,4 |
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1Energy & Wetlands Research Group, Center for Ecological Sciences [CES],
2Centre for Sustainable Technologies (astra)
3National Remote Sensing Centre, Department of Space, Government of India, Hyderabad, http://nrsc.gov.in.
Bangalore, Karnataka, 560 012, India*Corresponding Author E Mail: cestvr@ces.iisc.ernet.in.
*Corresponding Author: T.V. Ramachandra, cestvr@ces.iisc.ernet.in
Conclusion
Pune is one of the fastest-growing urban regions with effects of sprawl and influx of population in the region as established. Given prevailing high urban dynamics would require modelling and remote sensing to understand the future growth. This proposed approach would help in understanding specific regions and pockets if growth and would help in sustainable planning. In this context, our analysis contributes significantly by having demonstrated that urban growth models, by means of fuzzy-AHP- MC-CA, which in turn provided important and crucial information regarding urban growth pattern in and around Pune till 2025. The results show clear urban expansion and demonstrate that urban growth dynamics are strongly linked to population dynamics. The temporal mapping of land use and further urban growth simulations for the next decade indicate that the predicted urban expansion will happen along the major transport network such as Mumbai –Pune corridor etc., and existing built-up areas, among other physical factors. The main contribution of change in land use would occur in form of other category conversion.
More importantly, the MC-CA could model the with help of factors and maps generated using Fuzzy –AHP and MCE, which exhibit that same trend will continue through 2025, that would resulting in a mixture of different growth patterns in the buffer region and clumped urban centric growth in the city with loss of other land use. This Model also shows that new urban nuclei might emerge in next decade such as Pimpri Chinchwad and Yerawada and Nagar regions, Moreover, several notable smaller in-fill developments could be easily seen. These relevant findings would help policy makers, urban planners, to understand the further expansions of the city and to plan the resource and basic amenities with sustainable policy interventions.