Abstract

Urbanization involves the transformation of traditional agrarian economy to urban economies dominated by industries and other commercial activities. This communication reports urbanization process in Bhopal (India), a prominent Tier I city, during the  last four decades and visualisation of future growth in 2018 and 2022 with an understanding of urban morphology dynamics through spatial analysis of time-series (of 1977-2014)  remote sensing data with spatial metrics, density gradients and CA-Markov. Zone-wise urban density gradients of 1977 to 2014 aided in understanding urban morphology with intense urbanization at core regions and sprawl at outskirts in NW and SE regions. An increase of built up ranges by 162% (during 1977 to 1992), 111% (during 1992 to 2000), 150% (2000 to 2010) and 49% (2010 to 2014). CA-Markov based urban growth modelling indicates urban changes of 50% (2018) and 121% (2022), while ABM indicate urban changes of 57% (2018) and 243% (2022) with increasing urban population compared to 2014. Agent based modelling (ABM) simulations captured reality more effectively and provided the flexibility to vary quantities and characteristics based on proximity of various amenities generating probability surface influenced by various agents, indicating urban development. Simulation of urban growth based on ABM can help planning infrastructure and basic amenities and support the sustainable management of natural resources.

Key words: modelling, CA, Markov, urban, spatial metrics, Agent Based Modelling