Conclusion
Conclusion
LULC information provides an overview of interactions among human–natural landscape systems and feedback on the subsequent development of these interactions. Modelling LU dynamics in Karnataka state has aided in effectively capturing likely changes under five different scenarios, which forms a base for sustainable landscape management. The forest cover accounts for 15% (2019) in comparison to 21% earlier (1985), highlighting a 6% loss in forest cover due to anthropogenic pressure leading to forest degradation and deforestation. Industrialization, urbanization, and other anthropogenic pressures are responsible for higher LU transitions from post-1990. BAU depicts a likely increase in built-up area by 11.5% (2033) from 3% (2019). The tier-1 cities such as Bengaluru, Mangalore, and Dharwad might depict higher compact growth, whereas the tier-2 cities such as Mysuru, Belgaum, Hassan, and Tumkur indicate peri-urban development. Incorporating the likely developmental activities shows an increase in built-up cover of 15%, based on the ALT scenario. Both BAU and ALT scenario projections indicate a significant reduction in forest areas and agricultural LU due to new developmental projects and other urban infrastructure. The districts that are part of the Western Ghats region will be protected under RFP, AF, and SDP scenarios due to policy interventions. The AF and SDP scenarios indicate stringent policy implementation initiatives with the least disturbances. The forest cover will remain 11% (2033) compared to 17% in 2019, which is the least possible loss among all considered scenarios (BAU, ALT, and RFP). The policy scenarios favour the protection of evergreen and moist deciduous forest categories. The existing urbanization process will restrict the existing tier-1 and tier-2 cities; the least increase was shown in peri-urban areas. This information can form a strong base for decision-makers to validate policy options, thereby proposing appropriate strategies to achieve sustainable development. The policy scenarios suggested here emphasize a planned growth strategy for a habitable region. Integrated planning will pave the way to self-sufficient towns with regulated LU conversion, and sustainable development along newly developed public transport corridors.
The concept of cumulative effects of incremental reduction and erosion of natural systems' integrity from interactions of developmental activities highlights a need to redirect impact analysis to deal with the driving causes of unsustainable development. The conservation importance of an area is determined by assessing its ecological values and functions, which entails inventorying, mapping, and monitoring of natural resources to arrive at viable management strategies. This is achieved by accounting for ecosystem extent and conditions using temporal RS data coupled with field data. The scenarios presented here will strengthen decision-making by prudent LULC planning through geo-visualization of likely LU changes. Geographic models and biophysical constraints of LU changes can be integrated with socio-economic factors, LU change factors, ecological conditions factors, and economic system feedback.
The current research underscores the need to adopt a sustainable development plan, integrating reserve forest protection with stringent norms and afforestation of degraded lands. This will minimize abrupt LULC changes and ensure the sustenance of natural resources to sustain the livelihood of local people. It entails prioritizing natural resources-rich zones at disaggregated levels (Panchayat levels – administrative unit as per the 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendment Acts, 1992 for ensuring local self-governance through empowering local bodies; Biodiversity act, 2002, Government of India) in Karnataka state by aggregating bio-geo-climatic, land, ecological, energy, and social variables. Sustainable LU management policies will help to efficiently address abrupt transitions and assist in optimal resource usage, protecting the environment at the local and global scales.