Comparisons of Energy Use

Since energy consumption plays an important role in indicating the life style or quality, there are many indicators to compare life styles in various countries. Initially, energy consumption was compared with a country's gross domestic product (GDP). It was found from 56 countries data, that there is a strong correlation existing between national output per capita and energy per capita. The basic gross domestic product and energy data used in this research are from the UN Energy Statistics Yearbook ^[4] and from the report -Current Energy Scene in India, ^[5]. The energy data are measured in tons of oil equivalent (toe), the GDP data are measured in local currencies, but have been adjusted for price changes. Population of various countries is from the World Population Data sheet 1994, Published annually by Population Reference Bureau, Inc. Washington ^[6].

In order to make a quantitative estimate of the response of energy consumption per capita to GDP per capita a regression analyses is carried out for a set of data pertaining to 56 countries. Both linear and nonlinear regression analyses were carried out (about 25 types of equations were tried). Based on the lowest percentage of error and best correlation coefficient , the best fit relationship for this set of data was found to be power law of the form

with R² in all cases being greater than 0.8. Even though the statistical reliability of the regression is uniformly high, the striking substantive result is that the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption differs widely among various countries in terms of exponent "B". Exponent "B" in equation (1) is also referred to as the income elasticity of energy consumption and is, in part influenced by a country's stage in economic development. "B" is less than one for countries like Japan (0.9605), USA (0.9588), France (0.8788), UK (0.4780), Germany (0.6612) while for countries like India (1.8925), Thailand (1.9341), Mexico (1.3328), Italy (1.7662) and Phillipines (2.0696), it is greater than one. This shows that the energy consumptions is in part influenced by a country's stage of economic development. Apart from this, the structure of energy consumption exerts an important influence on the elasticities depending on the efficiency, price of predominant energy sources, economic structure and climate.

In developing countries like India, Nigeria and Pakistan, the share of non commercial energy is more than 50%. It is noticed that the energy consumption per capita accelerates as GDP per capita gets beyond $500. In terms of per capita GDP there is wide spectrum ranging from $92 for Mozambique, $288 for India, $22,219 for USA,$24,824 for Norway and $34,304 for Switzerland. Apart from this they also differ in terms of economic characteristics such as level of industrialisation, rate of economic growth etc. From data it appears that per capita energy use increases with higher incomes at a higher rate than the linear growth. There are only small differences in per capita energy between the developing countries. For most Asian countries barring Japan the per capita energy consumption 1 toe. For high income countries, the differences in energy use per capita are larger. For example the difference between USA and France or Japan is a factor of two. Among industrialised countries, Spain and Italy have relatively low per capita energy consumption. Further disaggregation of source wise data shows that Japan, Sweden and Switzerland have a high share of primary electricity, in the order of 90 to 96%, which contributes to the high energy use per capita and per GDP. Other factors explaining the difference between countries include industrial composition, end use efficiencies and geography. It is essential to include these factors in accounting for per capita energy consumption, otherwise cross country comparisons of aggregate measures such as energy use per capita or energy intensities could be misleading. Karnataka has a figure of 0.180 ( Per Capita Energy Consumption), While for India it is 0.231 during the year 1990-91. The Energy analysis is carried out by incorporating non commercial energy sources in computing Per Capita Energy Consumption, which constitutes the significant portion in total energy consumption in countries like India, Nigeria, etc. Incorporating non commercial energy sources also, per capita energy consumption becomes 0.379 for Karnataka and 0.469 for India. These are low compared to U.K. (3.646), Australia (5.206), Sweden (6.347), U.S.A (7.722) and Norway (8.134). This means that per capita energy consumption in industrialised countries like U.K. and U.S.A are higher (9.62 - 20.63) compared to that of Karnataka. This illustrates that Karnataka State has very low energy/capita and GDP/capita values, but these do not reveal the true state of energy use; one would like to know how the energy is used and what the level of efficiency is. Normally, it is said that, since our energy use/person is very low compared to that for advanced countries, we should increase our energy production so as to reach the level of "advanced" societies. It is wrongly assumed that energy/capita reflects a true state of development in a country. If this argument is accepted, then we should increase energy consumption rates in our country and our state.

Recently, there has been a shift in the thinking even in the industrial nations. The index to be used is not energy/person, but energy/GDP i.e. the amount of energy consumed for producing 1 unit of GDP (energy/GDP in tons oil equivalent per million dollars). This index also reflects the efficiency of energy use at a macro level. The value for Canada, 464.218, Norway, 365.896 and for U.S.A. 352.041 on the high side. Japan, France and Italy with values 132.041, 182.634 and 138.880 respectively, are on the low side. Energy/GDP is computed with the USA value equal to 100 shows that India has an energy intensity value of 754.12 toe/million dollars and Karnataka State has a value of 696.729 toe/million dollars. With inclusion of the non commercial energy share India's energy intensity increases to 1628.47 while for Karnataka it is 1468.99. Compared to the USA, India and Karnataka consumes 2.33 and 2.77 times (exclusion of non commercial sources), 4.85 and 6.00 times (with inclusion of non commercial sources of energy), while compared to France 4 times and Japan 6 times more energy for the same output. However, these calculations does not include animate energy share such as human and animal energy. If these are quantified and included then energy/GDP for India would shoot up further. These analyses shows that Karnataka state and India have good potential in energy conservation.

During 1994, India's energy intensity was 838 toe/m$ compared to USA's 344, Japan's 133 and Sweden's 172. This shows the increase in energy intensity for India while a decline for Japan, USA and Sweden. An explanation for the differences in energy intensities between these countries cannot be done based on this aggregate analysis. That would require each region/country's sectoral energy use, industrial composition, etc. This necessitates a detailed look at energy scenario and energy auditing.

The second factor seen is that the energy/SDP is increasing for Karnataka. One possible conclusion is that the energy efficiency (of use) is decreasing and not increasing. Post oil crisis situations saw considerable reductions in energy/GDP. For instance, West Germany showed a decrease from 1,080 to 1,010; Similar decreases were evident for U.K. and Netherlands. United States has shown a steady value for a period of nearly 20 years (1961-1974) varying from 1,400 to 1,480 (a max. of 5% difference) whereas Karnataka has shown an increase of about 10% in 5 years. Hence, it is desirable to actively pursue the introduction of energy efficient methods. The reasons why the U.S. has a flat curve for the 15 years period may be: frequent updating of technology; efficient methods due to competition; stability in the system due to many years of energy use.

In order to see which sector consumes more energy in Karnataka, sector wise GDP and energy have been calculated. The index here is the energy consumption in tons of oil equivalent per crore rupees of the sector's contribution to SDP. The value for agriculture is very low - 371.90 whereas, the value for transport is very high (9115.24). Industry sector has an energy/SDP values of 7989.32 for 1990-91.

Efficient use of energy implies proper pricing strategies. Subsidies to industries on the tariff or fuel charges or low tariffs result in larger wastage of energy instead of lower costs of production. The electricity tariff for Karnataka is the cheapest (second only to the U.S.). Many other countries like West Germany, U.K. and France have tariffs which are more than twice our rate. One cannot say more on this because it also depends on income levels. One point deserves mention here with low costs of energy charges, labour and raw materials, many of our industrial products - engineering, chemical etc. should be highly competitive in international markets, but it is not so, one of the factors may be inefficient use of energy.