No Substitution of Traditional Fuels

October 1997

It is widely assumed that increased penetration of modern fuels in developing countries implies a process of fuel transition (or fuel shift or fuel substitution), away from traditional fuels and towards modern fuels. A related assumption is that such a shift depends on per capita GNP, and further assumptions are that this fuel shift can and should be promoted by development efforts. These assumptions are not always right and lead to misleading conclusions. In this paper these assumptions and the conclusions which can be drawn from it are discussed in more detail. A longer version of this paper appeared in Wood Energy News 12.2.

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