Wind Energy Weekly: Vol 15, #699, May1996
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The following is the electronic edition of WIND ENERGY WEEKLY,
Vol. 15, #699, 27 May 1996, published by the American Wind
Energy Association. The full text of the WEEKLY is available
in hardcopy form for $595/year and is recommended for those with
a serious commercial interest in wind (the electronic edition
contains only excerpts). A monthly hardcopy publication, the
WINDLETTER, more suitable for those interested in residential
wind systems is included with a $50/year individual membership in
the Association. AWEA's goal is to promote wind energy as a
clean and environmentally superior source of electricity. Anyone
sharing this goal is invited to become a member--please help!.
For more information on the Association, contact AWEA, 122 C
Street, NW, 4th Floor, Washington, DC 20001, USA, phone (202)
383-2500, fax (202) 383-2505, email windmail@mcimail.com. Or
visit our World Wide Web site at http://www.econet.org/awea
ENERGY OUTLOOK
EIA: Demand to rise 50% by 2015 worldwide
EIA SEES 50% GROWTH IN
ENERGY DEMAND BY 2015
Continued growth in world oil consumption, from 69 to 99
million barrels per day, will be one of the major features of 50%
increase in overall world energy demand over the next 20 years,
according to a report released May 16 by the U.S. Department of
Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA). The
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 1996 projects "sufficient oil supply
to meet anticipated growth in demand with a moderate rise in
world prices."
The OUTLOOK also projects a 54% jump in global emissions of
carbon dioxide (CO2) over the same period, a fact which AWEA
Director of Communications Tom Gray said "underscores more
clearly than ever the urgent need to develop clean, renewable
energy technologies such as wind."
"We need to take decisive action, now, to begin the
transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy
sources," Gray said. "A little reading between the lines of the
EIA report tells us pretty clearly what will happen if we do not:
- "Oil shortages will threaten our energy security again. The
EIA report sees world oil demand rising from 69 million
barrels a day today to 99 million barrels a day by 2015. What
this means is that we are moving steadily into a future where
oil will become more scarce. At the same time, world reserves
are increasingly concentrated in the Persian Gulf, a
historically unstable region. This is a recipe for cartels,
embargoes, and the other problems we thought we had left behind
in the 1970s.
- "There is almost no chance that we will succeed in
stabilizing global greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels,
which is the very modest goal set out by the international
community at the Earth Summit. Atmospheric scientists tell us
that emissions need to be cut by around 80% from 1990 levels to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations of these gases and avert
climate change. Instead, we are sailing serenely on in the
opposite direction.
- "Developing countries are experiencing terrible problems
with air pollution, and concern for the environment is growing
rapidly throughout Latin America and Asia. At the same time,
demand for electricity is exploding, and is expected to nearly
double by 2015. Partially as a result, international renewable
power generation markets are expanding as well--installations
of wind equipment worldwide grew by 20% in 1994 and by 35% last
year. Without a policy that encourages and improves the
competitiveness of its domestic renewable energy industry, the
U.S. will be locked out of these markets, which promise to be
one of the richest sources of new manufacturing jobs during the
next century."
AWEA called on federal and state legislators and regulators
to support and enlarge current programs that encourage renewables
such as:
(1) Federal programs within the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) and other agencies that help American wind
companies compete in the international market, where other
governments work closely with their domestic industries to
promote export sales.
(2) The Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS), which would allow
states to preserve a modest market for renewables in the face
of utility industry restructuring by requiring power suppliers
to obtain some minimum percentage of their electricity from
renewable resources.
(3) The federal wind energy research program, which is aimed at
building lighter, more cost-effective wind turbines and which
also provides cost-shared funding for utilities that install
and operate wind power plants. (The House Budget Committee has
recently called for the elimination of this program, which
costs the average American taxpayer about 20 cents a year.)
"It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see why the U.S.
should get behind renewables today," Gray said. "Simply stated,
our future competitiveness, energy security, and environment
depend on a common-sense energy policy that promotes clean
domestic energy sources."
Demand for natural gas is expected to grow faster than any
other fuel, according to the OUTLOOK. Gas's share of total world
energy consumption is expected to increase by 3 percentage points
over the projection period, to 25%.
The OUTLOOK's demand projections are substantially increased
over last year's forecast. Total world energy consumption is
expected to reach 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) by
2010, about 5% higher than projections from the 1995 report. The
increase reflects stronger expectations for economic growth in
developing nations, which in turn creates increased use of energy
for electric power generation and for personal transportation.
Forecast highlights include:
- Rapid growth in natural gas demand is attributed to: the
advantage of natural gas over other fossil fuels in promoting
clean air, technological developments increasing the
competitive potential of natural-gas-fired electricity plants,
and abundant reserves and rapidly expanding infrastructure.
- Electricity demand is projected to nearly double over the
forecast period, growing to 19 trillion kWh by 2015.
Growing world dependence on electricity should result in
dramatic changes to the electric power industry in terms of
ownership, regulation, and industrial structure (i.e., the
division of the industry into its three major functions:
generation, transmission, and distribution). Further, the
primary fuel mix for world electricity generation is expected
to change substantially over the projection period. For
example, the natural gas share increases from 16% in 1995 to
21% in 2015, due largely to its increased utilization in
industrial countries.
- Worldwide, the largest gains in energy use occur in the
developing region of Asia where energy demand increases by 124%
between 1995 and 2015 in the reference case forecast. The
strong Asian increases in energy demand are a result of strong
economic growth in the emerging economies of this region.
Strong economic growth results in higher standards of living,
meaning increased energy use for electricity generation and for
personal transportation.
- By 2015, world carbon emissions are projected to exceed
1990 levels by 54 percent. By 2000, emissions in the developing
countries surpass those of the industrial nations. The sizeable
rise in emissions is a result of their heavy dependence on
coal, especially in the emerging economies of Asia. Emissions
are predicted to be below 1990 levels only in Eastern Europe
and the former Soviet Union because full recovery from the
region's economic collapse in the early and mid-1990s with
resulting lower energy use is not expected for at least
another decade.
RUMORS FLYING ABOUT
KENETECH'S FUTURE
As the WEEKLY went to press, reports that Kenetech Windpower
has made a significant number of layoffs and may file for
bankruptcy protection were circulating among members of the wind
industry and the financial community.
Although sources at Kenetech were not available for comment,
several industry insiders reported that Kenetech employees had
been called to a meeting by new president Steve Kern and told
that massive layoffs would be taking place. Most of these
layoffs were to occur last week. According to one industry
source, owners of Kenetech bonds have hired a bankruptcy counsel,
as has Kenetech, and the two lawyers will be meeting over the
next few weeks to hash out details of a possible bankruptcy
filing. The crucial date for Kenetech is June 15, when its next
interest payment on $100 million worth of bonds is due.
NAE INSTALLS 600-KW
MICON TURBINE IN IOWA
Northern Alternative Energy, Inc. (NAE) installed a 600-kW
Micon turbine at the Sibley Wind Farm near Sibley, Iowa, last
week--one of the largest single turbine installations in the U.S.
The turbine began producing power on May 21 for purchase by IES
Utilities, Inc., of Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Standing 67.5 meters (221.4 feet) high, the turbine is a
prominent sight. "On one of the highest points in Iowa, the
Micon 600 is quite a feature on the Iowa landscape," said NAE
principal Greg Jaunich. "It is visible from 20 miles in all
directions."
The new installation augments the 325 kW of capacity already
installed at the Sibley site. Five 65-kW WindMatic turbines were
originally installed at the site in 1992 by Wind Ventures I, a
partnership between NAE, Ecowind Development Corp., and an Iowa
investor.
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