------------------------------ Date: Tue, 12 May 1998 17:50:02 -0500 From: Neil ArnasonSubject: Release of POPAN-5 ANNOUNCEMENT Release of POPAN-5 For Windows April 30, 1998 POPAN (POPulation ANalysis)is a system for the management and analysis of mark-recapture data. POPAN includes capabilities for entering data as individual or grouped capture histories along with attribute information (age cohort, sex etc.), for selecting subsets and groupings of the animals and sample times, and for obtaining parameter estimates (abundance, survival, and recruitment rates) and goodness-of-fit tests using a very wide range of models for the sampling and population dynamics. POPAN is the most powerful program available for estimating abundance and net and gross recruitment rates in open populations. POPAN includes the capability to simulate marking experiments for studies of precision and robustness. POPAN-4, released in November 1995, added significant new capabilities to fit user-specified models using hierarchical constrained likelihood methods (the UFIT procedure). In POPAN-4 constraints were within-group (e.g. constrain survival per unit time to be constant over certain times, or allow no recruits at certain times). This release adds group capabilities to UFIT so that users can constrain parameters over sample times and/or groups (e.g. survival the same for males and females at specified times). Survival, capture and recruitment rates may be modelled using covariates (e.g. capture a function of sampling effort, survival a function of temperature), with across-group constraints (e.g. equal slopes in males and females). Other major additions in POPAN-5 include: - UFIT provides for quick specification of standard (global constraint) models, including equal rates over all times and/or groups, closure models, and additive models - more robust model fitting procedure with automatic detection of redundant constraints and determination of number of parameters for model selection (by likelihood ratio tests or AIC) - SIMULATE is extended to support multiple groups - SIMULATE can generate tables of expected or averaged statistics in a form acceptable to UFIT - UFIT can accept real or simulated summary data as input (rather than history data). User can input expected statistics (from SIMULATE) to predict precision and bias in estimates and the power of tests. - extensive additions to the manual (mostly for UFIT and SIMULATE) and many new TEST examples - simplified installation procedure POPAN runs under Windows 3.1 or later (including Win 95, Win NT 4.0) on Intel-compatible co-processor machines (486 DX model computer and later; 8Mb RAM or more). POPAN (and its manuals) are available as freeware via the Internet. To download, use the POPAN web site: (http://www.cs.umanitoba.ca/~popanty.htmaspurgh.htmlex.htmlh.cfmenbul-e.HTM) or the POPAN anonymous FTP site: (directory pub/popan/popan5 at ftp.cs.umanitoba.ca ). More detailed descriptions of POPAN-5 and download and installation instructions are available from the POPAN web site or by emailing me. Physical copies of the installation disks or manuals are available (at a charge) for those who want them or are unable to obtain them (free) via the Internet. See the orderform on the web site or email me requesting an order form for details. Winnipeg, Canada May 12, 1998. ------------------------------ ------------------------------------ Arni Neil Arnason Phone: (204) 474-6918 (direct to me) Department of Computer Science (204) 474-8313 (msgs.) University of Manitoba (204) 474-7609 (fax) Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N2 email: arnason@cs.umanitoba.ca