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Date:    Tue, 12 May 1998 17:50:02 -0500
From:    Neil Arnason 
Subject: Release of POPAN-5

ANNOUNCEMENT

Release of POPAN-5 For Windows
April 30, 1998


POPAN (POPulation ANalysis)is a system for the management and analysis of
mark-recapture data. POPAN includes capabilities for entering data as
individual or grouped capture histories along with attribute information
(age cohort, sex etc.), for selecting subsets and groupings of the animals
and sample times, and for obtaining parameter estimates (abundance,
survival, and recruitment rates) and goodness-of-fit tests using a very
wide range of models for the sampling and population dynamics. POPAN is the
most powerful program available for estimating abundance and net and gross
recruitment rates in open populations.  POPAN includes the capability to
simulate marking experiments for studies of precision and robustness.

POPAN-4, released in November 1995, added significant new capabilities to
fit user-specified models using hierarchical constrained likelihood methods
(the UFIT procedure).  In POPAN-4 constraints were within-group (e.g.
constrain survival per unit time to be constant over certain times, or
allow no recruits at certain times). This release adds group capabilities
to UFIT so that users can constrain parameters over sample times and/or
groups (e.g. survival the same for males and females at specified times).
Survival, capture and recruitment rates may be modelled using covariates
(e.g. capture a function of sampling effort, survival a function of
temperature), with across-group constraints (e.g. equal slopes in males and
females).

Other major additions in POPAN-5 include:
-  UFIT provides for quick specification of standard (global constraint)
models, including equal rates over all times and/or groups, closure models,
and additive models
-  more robust model fitting procedure with automatic detection of
redundant constraints and determination of number of parameters for model
selection (by likelihood ratio tests or AIC)
-  SIMULATE is extended to support multiple groups
-  SIMULATE can generate tables of expected or averaged statistics in a
form acceptable to UFIT
-  UFIT can accept real or simulated summary data as input (rather than
history data). User can input expected statistics (from SIMULATE) to
predict precision and bias in estimates and the power of tests.
-  extensive additions to the manual (mostly for UFIT and SIMULATE) and
many new TEST examples
-  simplified installation procedure

POPAN runs under Windows 3.1 or later (including Win 95, Win NT 4.0) on
Intel-compatible co-processor machines (486 DX model computer and later;
8Mb RAM or more). POPAN (and its manuals) are available as freeware via the
Internet. To download, use the POPAN web site:
(http://www.cs.umanitoba.ca/~popanty.htmaspurgh.htmlex.htmlh.cfmenbul-e.HTM)
or the POPAN anonymous FTP site: (directory pub/popan/popan5 at
ftp.cs.umanitoba.ca ).

More detailed descriptions of POPAN-5 and download and installation
instructions are available from the POPAN web site or by emailing me.
Physical copies of the installation disks or manuals are available (at a
charge) for those who want them or are unable to obtain them (free) via the
Internet.  See the orderform on the web site or email me requesting an
order form for details.

Winnipeg, Canada
May 12, 1998.

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Arni Neil Arnason                 Phone: (204) 474-6918 (direct to me)
Department of Computer Science           (204) 474-8313 (msgs.)
University of Manitoba                   (204) 474-7609 (fax)
Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N2       email: arnason@cs.umanitoba.ca