Subject: Plenary Panel on Y2K - Herbert M'Cleod
Forwarded copy of a statement made at the George Washington University Y2K
Conference on July 29, 1999
____________________________________________________
STATEMENT
BY MR. HERBERT M'CLEOD
AT THE PLENARY PANEL ON Y2K,
THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY,
WASHINGTON D.C.
29 JULY 1999
Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen,
Introduction:
I am very pleased to represent the United Nations Development Programme
at this gathering and to join such a distinguished panel. Let me first
thank the George Washington University for organizing this conference
and Professor Paula Gordon for inviting me to this panel discussion on a
topic, which is as vital for those living in advanced and
technologically sophisticated countries, as for the rest of the world in
less priviledged circumstances.
I will confine my presentation to a description of UNDP's mission and
the modest role we are playing in addressing Y2K issues in partner
programme countries. In addition, I will share with you our perception
of what further steps are needed to prevent and/or mitigate any crisis
situation in those countries and offer some suggestions on what we could
do together to avert global and national crises.
Context/Definition of Y2K:
After 3 days of discussion, I am sure that there is now a common
understanding of the problem and need not spend time redefining it.
In any case the three circle illustration, so eloquently articulated by
Professor Gordon in her working white paper, sums up the problem pretty
well for us to continue our discourse.
Indeed the Y2K is a complex, inter-related problem. While IT/CT is at
the core of the problem, understanding the magnitude of the implications
of date-sensitive computer-chip embedded systems provides us with some
kind of a picture of what we face. The fact is that modern life as we
know it in the developed and developing world is almost totally
dependent on these embedded systems. At the same time, the
ever-increasing inter-linkages if not interdependence among all
countries, borne out of globalization make all countries vulnerable in
varying degrees to the otherwise simple technology problem of Y2K.
Put differently, globalization of the world economies have progressed so
rapidly that disruptions in one region create repercussions upon others
and isolation is now virtually impossible, and undesirable.
Hence, the Y2K problem will have global, national, as well as local
impacts on economic stability, social order, political systems, and even
the physical environment. In other words it will touch every aspect of
human lives.
The nature of the problem is also not time bound as it is likely to
roll-over and linger well beyond year 2000, if measures are not taken
sufficiently ahead of the actual occurrence of the event.
Today, as we continue to discuss the issue, we are but only 155 days
away from ushering the "new-millenium" and experiencing, in real life,
the "millenium-bug" - the other name for Y2K. However, we will begin
to experience it even before 31 December as some people will start the
mass panic to take preventive but narrowly focused measures. Time
therefore, is very short and the task ahead is gigantic.
What is UNDP doing?
UNDP's mission is to provide technical grant assistance to developing
countries around the world (The current number of countries, which
receive UNDP assistance is 134). The goal is to help build their
national capacities in governance for:
* Promoting human development
* Reducing poverty
* Maintaining sustainable environment
* Ensuring gender, social and economic equality
* Promoting human rights
* Interventions in crises countries and promoting post-conflict
recovery.
We do all these in partnership with recipient and donor countries as
well as other donor organizations, like the World Bank, Regional
Development Banks and other UN Agencies.
In the five regions in which we operate we have taken the following
action programmes as a contribution to address the Y2K problem.
In Africa, we are assisting a regional programme called National
Planning for Africa for the Year 2000. The aim of the project is to
have majority of African countries prepare their respective national
plans to ensure the provision of basic services, in case of Y2K related
disruptions and failures. More specifically, this project is helping
to:
* Raise awareness of the key decision-makers to the potential
consequences of Y2K and the need for Y2K national plans.
* Build capacity of Y2K national coordinators to design and implement
national plans of action to mitigate the effects of Y2K.
* Prioritize national sectors, such as energy, and communications, to
help countries focus on specific remedial measures that must be applied
quickly and in a strategic manner to have the most effective and
beneficial impact in the shortest possible time; and
* Increase cooperation among UNDP, World Bank, and ITU, in coordinating
and supporting Africa's Y2K national planning and implementation
efforts.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, UNDP has helped set up a
a.) Foro Y2K America del Sur: comprising 10 countries: Argentina,
Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador,
Chile) to help:
1. Develop a Web site for the Foro
2. Organize the first meeting of experts in Energy in Buenos Aires.
3. Organize the first conference of the Foro in Lima, Peru
4. Develop the second meeting of the "Group de Energía" in Washington
D.C.
5. Develop the second Conferencia del Foro 2000 for South America.
6. Develop an Auditing Y2K Workshop in Santiago, Chile (26-27 May)
7. Support National Coordinators in reference to technical and
managerial matters
8. Hold weekly telephone conferences with all countries in South America
9. Coordinate with the sectoral global organizations such as IATA,
Global 2000, International Telecommunications Union.
10. Support the coordination of the International Y2K Cooperation
Center with South America
11. Manage and implement the Y2K related development agendas.
12. Present the work done by Group of Energy of the Foro at the United
Nations.
UNDP has also set up another forum called:
b.) Foro Y2K Mexico & America Central:
The type of support that UNDP provides to Central America and Mexico
consists in the funding of key regional meetings. Some Caribbean
countries also participate in these regional meetings.
In Asia and the Pacific region, UNDP is assisting requesting
governments with advisory services for risk assessment and contingency
planning.
In the Arab States region, UNDP is committed to provide advisory
services relating to Y2K matters to requesting governments in the
region.
In Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, UNDP has helped
to set up a Y2K cooperation center in Sofia, Bulgaria to address Y2K
related issues for the region.
In close collaboration with the United Nations Secretariat, we have just
completed a survey of the Y2K related risk situation in our programme
countries. Although this exercise was primarily meant for United
Nations internal office planning purposes, its results would be useful
by mapping the degree of risk for each critical sector in each of the
134 countries. This will add to the information available and upon
which further work and actions can be envisaged. A simple example is
that such an exercise would help in focusing donor support to high risk
areas.
Ladies and Gentlemen, we recognize that this is not enough.
Unfortunately our meager resources do not allow us to go much farther.
What We Must Do Together?
What therefore must we all do together?
As we all know, time is limited; knowledge on the issue is confined
largely to the developed countries, with the United States leading the
rest; and resources are insufficient. It is therefore, imperative
that, national and local governments, business and private sectors,
civil societies, international organizations and NGOs must join together
and make a combined and determined effort towards addressing the issue.
Recommendations:
From all the discussions here, it is evident that only a combined and
coordinated effort at the global, national and local level will minimize
the negative consequences of Y2K. The recommendations should therefore,
be seen, in this context.
First, urge all national governments, to reinforce appropriate Y2K
national Task Forces, through resources, authority and knowledge.
Where none exists, to create such groups as a matter of urgency.
Second, a rigorous Awareness Creation Campaign must be launched at
national and local levels. The thrust of such campaigns ought to be to
educate responsible authorities and the major stakeholders on the
inter-connectivity of the Y2K problem, its likely impacts, and measures
that must be taken to address the problem.
Third, a serious effort must be made by all national governments to
prepare national contingency plans and inventories of all priority areas
of concern for preventing and minimizing Y2K related events that would
pose the greatest of risks to humankind. A long list is given in the
white paper and includes nuclear weapons systems, biological and
chemical laboratories, nuclear power plants, electric power grid among
others.
Fourth, every national government must lead the initiative to test those
high priority and high risk areas and prepare appropriate action plans
for Y2K eventualities in those areas.
Fifth, mobilize all government resources, civil society, action groups
to launch vigorous drives to address the issue.
Sixth, to encourage governments to allocate appropriate financial
resources, national contributions could be matched by donor funds to
address Y2K related issues such as those mentioned in the white paper.
Seventh, use the internet facilities to launch a global
awareness-creation, and preparedness campaign.
Eighth, emerge from this conference with a comprehensive proposal,
which should be shared across the globe with national governments,
private sector, civil societies and international organizations for
taking appropriate measures.
Ninth, explore with the World Bank and other major donors, the
possibility of preparing a practical hand book, which could be used by
national governments and others concerned as practical guidelines to
respond to possible Y2K related eventualities.
Ladies and Gentlemen, the UNDP with its network of offices in almost
all of the developing world, and its experience in dealing with
countries in crises is prepared to make available this network for any
coherent and coordinated action this meeting will recommend. One
possibility that comes to mind is the identification of a minimum list
of critical functions per country and an assessment of the cost of
maintaining these. With goodwill to mobilize resources we should be
able to quickly provide the support necessary.
Post Event Recovery:
Some experts are of the opinion that the Y2K is a rolling problem and
that system malfunctions caused by it will have to be dealt with well
beyond year 2000. Depending on the magnitude of disruptions and
malfunctions, serious effort would need to be taken to restore/replace
the affected computer based systems to bring back normalcy to the
society-based services. For this, governments/private businesses and
other affected parties will require access to expert groups, consulting
firms and computer industry to help them rectify the problems. They may
also need substantial funding from donors to implement practical
remedial measures and solutions. UNDP, World Bank, United Nations,
United Nations Agencies and other major donors have significant roles to
play in this and should prepare for such post event activities.
Conclusion:
In closing, I would like to say that as we look to the future in the new
"millenium," we must take lessons from the past. History tells us of
innumerable sufferings and miseries of humankind from natural
catastrophes and man -made conflicts. But human genius, patience and
endurance have always withstood challenges and turned them into
opportunities. After every challenge humankind emerged more resilient
and advanced to even higher standards of living. Once again, as we are
at the threshold of the new millenium, we are faced with a new
challenge, the likes of which we have not experienced before. Let us
pick up the gauntlet. I am confident that our combined and determined
effort to address this challenge, and the opportunities offered through
global cooperation will move us to even greater heights.
Thank you.
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Patrick O'Beirne B.Sc. M.A. FICS. Software Quality Consultant
PSP, TickIT, Y2K PC software assessment, euro(EMU) conversion
http://www.sysmod.comtokset/hallinto/CIPA99/Registration.htmmls.htmmll8.aspp0806 Tel: +353 (0)55 22294 Fax: 055 22297
Systems Modelling Ltd, Tara Hill, Gorey, Co. Wexford, IRELAND