Subject: THE Y2K PROBLEM, PART 2
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. Environmental Research Foundation .
. P.O. Box 5036, Annapolis, MD 21403 .
. Fax (410) 263-8944; Internet: erf@rachel.org .
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THE Y2K PROBLEM, PART 2
Y2K is the shorthand name for Year 2000, a computer problem that
may affect both environmental and human health in every
industrialized or industrializing country. Many thousands of
operating computers currently represent the year by two digits:
25 is 1925 and 98 is 1998. When January 1, 2000 rolls around,
these computers will assume 00 means 1900, not 2000, unless their
software is fixed. Computers that have this "Y2K date problem"
are called "noncompliant."
If you were born in 1935, a computer this year would determine
that your age is 98-35=63. However, two years from now that same
computer may determine that your age is 00-35=-35. At that point
the computer may stop working, or it may pass this incorrect
information on to others, including other computers.
This seemingly-simple problem has large consequences.
BYTE magazine, a technical computer journal, calls Y2K "a crisis
without precedent in human history."[1] FORTUNE magazine calls it
"the biggest screwup of the computer age"[2] and says it may cost
$1 trillion to fix. (The Vietnam War cost half that much, $500
billion.) The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) --a trade
association for electric utility companies --says the Y2K problem
will begin to disrupt businesses, including electric utilities, a
year before the new century begins: "Major disruptions in
technical and business operations could begin as early as January
1, 1999. Nearly every industry will be affected," EPRI says.[3]
If the disruptions don't begin January 1, 1999, they may begin
July 1, 1999, when fiscal year 2000 begins for 46 out of the 50
states, or on October 1, 1999, when fiscal year 2000 begins for
the federal government. But most of the problems will probably
surface after midnight December 31, 1999.
Charles Rossetti, commissioner of the U.S. Internal Revenue
Service (IRS), told the WALL STREET JOURNAL April 22, 1998, that
Y2K is a "very, very serious problem." "There's no point in
sugarcoating the problem," he said. "If we don't fix the
century-date problem, we will have a situation scarier than the
average disaster movie you might see on a Sunday night.
Twenty-one months from now, there could be 90 million taxpayers
who won't get their refunds, and 95% of the revenue stream of the
United States could be jeopardized."[4] Mr. Rossetti went on to
say he is confident that these problems will not occur because
IRS computer experts will prevent them. Critics of IRS are not so
sure.[5]
In addition to many thousands of noncompliant computers needing
to be fixed, there are millions of noncompliant "embedded
systems" --computer chips embedded in other equipment such as
photocopiers, telephones, elevators, traffic lights, electric
generating plants, and nuclear missiles --that also need to be
fixed or replaced.
The deadline for having everything fixed --December 31, 1999 --is
just over 500 days away, and it is an unusual kind of deadline
because it cannot be ignored or extended. FORTUNE magazine
reported April 27, 1998, that, on average, large corporations are
only 34% of the way through the job of making their systems
compliant.[2]
Government agencies are doing only slightly better. The
Government Accounting Office (GAO) said in March, 1998, "Time is
running out for solving the Year 2000 problem. Many federal
agencies will not be able to renovate and fully test all of their
mission-critical systems and may face major disruptions in their
operations. At the same time, systems that have been renovated
and tested may encounter unanticipated Year 2000 problems."[6]
The GAO gave examples of what might go wrong:
** The nation's air transportation may face major delays and
disruptions because the airlines may not be able to file flight
plans with the Federal Aviation Administration.
** Taxpayers may not receive timely tax refunds because the
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) may be unable to process their tax
returns.
** Payments to veterans and retirees may be delayed or disrupted
by the failure of mission-critical systems supporting the
nation's benefit payments systems. [In other words, people may
not receive their social security or disability checks in a
timely fashion.]
GAO reported June 10, 1998, that 24 government agencies are only
40% of the way toward their goal of Y2K compliance.[7] GAO said
it had published 40 reports on government computers during the
past two years: "The common theme has been that serious
vulnerabilities remain in addressing the federal government's
Year 2000 readiness, and that much more action is needed to
ensure that federal agencies satisfactorily mitigate Year 2000
risks to avoid debilitating consequences." GAO concluded, "As a
result of federal agencies' slow progress, the public faces the
risk that critical services could be severely disrupted by the
Year 2000 computing crisis."
No one knows what will happen as we approach the year 2000. We do
know that many manufacturing processes are dependent upon
computers, especially in the chemical process industries. FORTUNE
magazine said recently, "The precision and interdependence of
process controls in chemical plants, for instance, make a Rube
Goldberg fantasy contraption look simple. Let a single
temperature sensor in the complex chain of measuring instruments
go cuckoo because of a year 2000 problem, and you'll get a
product with different ingredients than you need--if it comes out
at all."[2]
Even the nation's defense apparatus could be adversely affected.
The GAO reported June 30 that the U.S. Navy is far behind in
fixing its Y2K problems and concluded, "Failure to address the
year 2000 Problem in time could severely degrade or disrupt the
Navy's day-to-day and, more importantly, mission-critical
operations." GAO said the Navy does not even know how many of its
computers have Y2K problems, so it doesn't know how big the task
ahead may be.[8]
Why is this seemingly-simple problem so difficult? Merrill Lynch,
the financial management firm, says there are four reasons:[9]
1. Pervasiveness. Computers that depend on dates are present in
every kind of technology --manufacturing systems, medical
equipment, elevators, telephone switches, satellites, and even
automobiles.
2. Interdependence: Computers exchange information among
themselves. "A single uncorrected system can easily spread
corrupted data throughout an organization and even affect
external institutions," Merrill Lynch says.
3. Inconsistency: Computer languages do not store and use dates
in a consistent way. Dates are labeled, stored, and used in
different ways from program to program and even within a single
program. Therefore, identifying and correcting dates requires
close inspection of the computer code line by line.
4. Size: Most large corporations and government agencies use
thousands of programs containing millions of lines of computer
code. Each line of code must be inspected manually and, if
necessary, fixed.
There are additional reasons why this is a particularly difficult
problem.
** Many business computer programs that run on the largest
("mainframe") computers are written in an obsolete language
called COBOL. COBOL hasn't been taught for 10 years, so there is
a distinct shortage of COBOL programmers.[2,10]
** Indeed, there is a shortage of all programmers to work on Y2K
problems. Swiss Re (a firm that insures insurance companies
against major losses) says, "A total of well over three million
programmers would be needed to solve the millenium [date] problem
in the US. In actual fact there are only around two million of
them at present."[11]
** When computer code is re-written, new errors are introduced at
an average rate of one new error in every 14 lines of re-written
code. Thus even "Y2K compliant" code may not work right when the
time comes.[2]
Therefore, we believe it is reasonable to conclude that portions
of the nation's critical infrastructure (water, electricity,
telecommunications, and transportation) may be disrupted for a
period --perhaps a few days, but conceivably longer. Essential
government services may also be disrupted.
We could be entirely wrong. However we believe it is sensible to
hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Individuals might take precautions to protect their families.
They need water, food, shelter, and a cash reserve.[12] They need
paper records of bank accounts and insurance policies, in case
computerized records are lost. But even more importantly,
communities need to begin now to think about ways to mitigate
these problems. All is not lost. Much trouble can be averted by
focused efforts now. Awareness is the first issue. (A recent
survey of 643 individuals found that 38% had never heard of the
Y2K problem. Among the 400 (62%) who HAD heard of it, 80% said
they believed it would be fixed before the year 2000 arrived.
This contrasts with an earlier poll of technology and business
executives charged with fixing Y2K problems: only 17% of them
said they thought the problems would be fixed before the year
2000.)[13] People need to be told.
Coordinated action is the second issue. People need the resources
to fix their own computers.[1] Third, communities need to think
creatively about ways to help those who are most vulnerable:
people who rely on social security, veterans benefits, and
private pensions, for example. What will happen if their funds
are delayed? Local governments, churches, and civic groups, could
begin now to bring communities together to find ways to avert
serious problems that might occur. Approached properly, Y2K could
become a catalyst for positive community growth and development
in the best sense of those words.[14]
--Peter Montague
(National Writers Union, UAW Local 1981/AFL-CIO)
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[1] Edmund X. DeJesus, "Year 2000 Survival Guide," BYTE (July
1998), pgs. 52-62. Good web sites covering this problem include:
<http://www.yourdon.com>;
<http://www.webcom.com/~yardeni/y2kbook.html>;
<http://www.euy2k.comm/~yardeni/y2kbook.html>;
<http://www.year2000.comyardeni/y2kbook.html>;
<http://www.y2ktimebomb.comdeni/y2kbook.html>;
<http://www.garynorth.comomdeni/y2kbook.html>;
<http://www.y2kwomen.commomdeni/y2kbook.html>; and
<http://www.transform.org/transform/tlc/Resiliency.htm>.
[2] Gene Bylinsky, "Industry Wakes Up to the Year 2000 Menace,"
FORTUNE April 27, 1998, pgs. 163-180. Available on the web:
<http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1998/980427/imt.html>.
[3] See <http://year2000.epriweb.com/year2000/8/980427/imt.html challenge.html>.
[4] Tom Herman, "A Special Summary and Forecast of Federal and
State Tax Developments," WALL STREET JOURNAL April 22, 1998, pg.
A1.
[5] Peyman Pejman, "Industry rep voices doubt over federal
2000-readiness," GOVERNMENT COMPUTER NEWS June 15, 1998. See
<http://www.gcn.com/gcn/1998/June15/indus-0427/imt.html
try_rep_voices_doubt_over_f.htm> (omit the hyphen).
[6] Joel C. Willemssen and Keith Rhodes, YEAR 2000 COMPUTING
CRISIS: BUSINESS CONTINUITY AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING
[GAO/AIMD-10.1.19] (Washington, D.C.: General Accounting Office,
March, 1998). Available at: <http://www.gao.gov/y2kr.htm/June15/indus-0427/imt.html>.
[7] Joel C. Willemssen, YEAR 2000 COMPUTING CRISIS; ACTIONS MUST
BE TAKEN NOW TO ADDRESS SLOW PACE OF FEDERAL PROGRESS
[GAO/T-AIMD-98-205] (Washington, D.C.: General Accounting Office,
June 10, 1998). Available at: <http://www.gao.gov/y2kr.htm/June15/indus-0427/imt.html>.
[8] John B. Stephenson and others, DEFENSE COMPUTERS; YEAR 2000
COMPUTER PROBLEMS PUT NAVY OPERATIONS AT RISK [GAO/AIMD-98-150]
(Washington, D.C.: General Accounting Office, June, 1998).
Available at: <http://www.gao.gov/y2kr.htm/June15/indus-0427/imt.html>.
[9] See <http://www.ml.com/woml/forum/millen.htms-0427/imt.html>.
[10] Rajiv Chandrasekaran, "Older Programmers May Fix Future,"
WASHINGTON POST March 2, 1997, pg. A1. See:
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/frompost/features/-
mar97/2000.htm> (omit the second hyphen).
[11] See <http://www.swissre.com/download/public/millen-e.pdfres/->.
[12] See <http://www.y2kwomen.comdownload/public/millen-e.pdfres/->. If you need this "how to
protect your family" information sent to you by mail, send us
$2.00 to cover postage and copying; we'll mail you 27 pages of
information. Please mark your envelope Y2K.
[13] Susan Watson [(508) 935-4190] and Karen Fogerty [(508)
935-4091], "CIO Magazine Study Shows Many Consumers Clueless
About Year 2000 Computer Glitch," press release dated June 12,
1998. See <http://www.cio.com/marketing/releases/y2k_re--e.pdfres/-
lease.html> (omit the hyphen).
[14] See, for example, Robert Theobald's work on community
responses to Y2K: <http://www.transform.org/transform/tlc/-k_re--e.pdfres/-
Resiliency.htm> (omit the hyphen).
Descriptor terms: computers; chemical plant safety; y2k problem;
merrill lynch; embedded systems; robert theobald; swiss re;
cobol; disaster preparedness;
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--Peter Montague, Editor
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