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Date: Thu, 5 Nov 1998 12:43:10 -0800
From: Scott Rehmus
Subject: GIS Grants Available for Conservation Orgs
ANNOUNCEMENT OF GRANTS FOR NON-PROFIT GROUPS INTERESTED IN GEOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)
October 20, 1998
NOTE: Do NOT reply to this email directly. Please refer to the CTSP web
site <http://www.ctsp.orges.cap/locate/ContentsDirectlist-archive/> for detailed information about grants. If you
still have questions about how to apply for CTSP grants, please send email
to: , including your phone number, and we will get back
to you right away.
The Conservation Technology Support Program (CTSP) announces the
availability of guidelines for its 1999 CTSP Grants. CTSP is supported by
donations of computer equipment from Hewlett Packard Company
<http://www.hp.comrges.cap/locate/ContentsDirectlist-archive/> and of software from ESRI <http://www.esri.comes.cap/locate/ContentsDirectlist-archive/>.
U.S.-based non-profit, tax-deductible (501c3) conservation organizations
may receive applications for grants of computer hardware (computers,
printers, plotters and other devices) and mapping software by visiting the
CTSP web site <http://www.ctsp.orges.cap/locate/ContentsDirectlist-archive/>. If, after reviewing the guidelines,
you wish to apply for a grant, you will be directed to send an email which
will return the application to you.
Completed grant proposals must be postmarked no later than midnight,
January 7, 1999. Awards will be made by mid-April, 1999, and
equipment/software packages will be delivered by June, 1999.
CTSP makes approximately 50 grants per year, most of which include a
powerful PC computer from Hewlett Packard and mapping software from ESRI
(awards of advanced systems are also available to qualified groups). Over
the last five years, CTSP has awarded 200 groups grants worth almost $4
million dollars.
International organizations may be eligible for grants -- see the
guidelines for details.
CONSERVATION TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
201 Mission Street 4th Floor
San Francisco CA 94105
ctsp@ctsp.org
www.ctsp.org
Fax: 415-979-0371
END
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Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1998 12:20:55 -0600
From: Erica Howard
Subject: Re: GL: Hadley Centre publishes startling new predictions
> World's biggest super-computer predicts runaway greenhouse effect that
> will bring drought, deserts and disease in its wake
The language of this article disturbs me, and I sincerely hope that it was
the reporter who decided to delete the language of uncertainty, not the
scientists. The web site has statements which sound a little more
reasonable, admitting continued uncertainty and assumptions in the model:
"The reason why climate predictions are so uncertain is that, once climate
change begins, consequential changes will feed back, either positively or
negatively, on the original warming. These feedbacks are poorly understood.
Although we believe the most important feedbacks in the atmosphere, ocean,
land surface and sea-ice are already included (albeit imperfectly) in the
climate model, there are others which should be taken into account, and
this can only be done by including all components of the climate system in
a fully interactive model. Most recently we have included a sulphur cycle
which creates sulphate aerosol from natural and industrial SO2 emissions.
The next step is to add the carbon cycle and chemistry; climate change has
the potential to disturb the natural carbon cycle in such a way as to alter
atmospheric concentration of CO2, and to disturb the chemistry of the
atmosphere so as to alter concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as
ozone and methane. Sub-models currently under development will be
incorporated (over the next few years) in the main model to form the first
Hadley Centre Earth Systems Model. Ultimately we plan to include feedbacks
from socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and energy use. " (from:
http://www.meto.govt.uk/sec5/CR_div/Brochure98/index.htmlve/)
A faster, better computer is important -- but it will not make up for
imperfect knowledge about the systems we're studying. Nor will it correct
any fallacies in a model's basic assumptions. It is heartening that this
model and others seem to be doing a fair job at simulating past climates;
and it is good to see that more groups are including more sophisticated
feedback mechanisms, like treeline movement; but that is by no means
iron-clad proof that the future will turn out just as the reporter and/or
the researchers have described it.
And I hope none of us feels like a Cassandra, futilely making predictions
that no efforts can change and no one will believe. There's a lot of field
work to be done by ecologists and atmospheric scientists and others to
improve the information that goes into these models. And by social
scientists and policy-makers to change inputs to the human-controlled terms
of the equations. (Personally, I'm very interested in controls on changes
to ecosystem ranges, and in human effects on carbon cycling in certain
ecosystems.)
I feel that every article like this that comes out predicting certain
calamity increases public cynicism about global climate change scenarios.
Educating the public about these very real *possibilities* resulting from
humanity's actions is crucial, but it needs to be done carefully.
On a side note, something that worries me is that even if millions of
people, vast ecosystems, and billions of other living organisms are indeed
ravaged by these changes, there will be billions more who may not notice or
mind the changes in the short run. If those who have access to public fora
are not among those most affected, will public policy really change?
Erica Howard
University of Wisconsin - Madison
eahoward@students.wisc.edu
> Story from the London Daily Guardian on a new study by the Hadley Center for
> Climate Change. It's a VERY strong story. In-depth information on the study
> can be found on their web site at:
>
> <http://www.meto.govt.uk/sec5/CR_div/Brochure98/index.htmlve/>.
>
> Steve Pedery
> steve.pedery@sierraclub.org
>
> World's biggest super-computer predicts runaway greenhouse effect that
> will bring drought, deserts and disease in its wake
>
> By Paul Brown
> Guardian (london) Tuesday November 3, 1998
>
> Large swathes of the planet will be plunged into misery by climate change in
> the next 50 years, with many millions ravaged by hunger,
> water shortages and flooding, according to evidence published
> yesterday.
>
> Findings from Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Change presented to
> 170 countries in Buenos Aires show that parts of the Amazon rain
> forest will turn into desert by 2050, threatening the world with an
> unstoppable greenhouse effect.
>
> The startling findings are the result of billions of calculations made by the
> world's biggest super-computer, installed at the Hadley Centre
> in Berkshire. The latest figures show the earth is heating up fast, with 1998
> already the hottest year since reliable records began 140
> years ago.
>
> Among the findings are:
> * Land temperatures will go up 6C by the end of the next century.
> * The number of people on the coast subject to flooding each year
> will rise from 5 million now to 100 million by 2050 and 200 million by 2080.
> * Another 30 million people will be hungry in 50 years because it
> will be too dry to grow crops in large parts of Africa.
> * An extra 170 million people will live in countries with extreme
> water shortages.
> * Malaria, one of the world's most dread diseases, will threaten
> much larger areas of the world - including Europe - by 2050.
>
> The new predictions include far better representations of ocean
> currents, which drive the world's climate. The Gulf Stream, which is
> important for warming Britain in the winter, will be 20 per cent less
> strong in the future but Europe will still warm considerably.
>
> Michael Meacher, the environment minister who is going to Argentina,
> said: "These are sobering findings. Millions of people will have life made
> miserable by climate change, with increased risk of hunger, water
> shortages and extreme events like flooding. Combating climate change
> is the greatest challenge of human history."