From:    Bill Bradlee 
Subject: Re: Human Population Projections

Hi John:

In reply to your question about talk of declining human population I would
suggest you check out the Population Action International (PAI) website
(www.populationaction.org) as a reference -- they currently have a very good,
detailed factsheet posted on this issue entitled "What Birth Dearth?" Also, the
World Resources Institute (WRI) _Guide to the Global Environment_ published
yearly by WRI, The United Nations Environment Program, the World Bank, and the
United Nations Development Program is an invaluable resource. It is widely
available and contains excellent statistics on population and numerous other
environmental issues.

I mentioned your question to Katie Mogelgaard, who works on population issues at
UCS. She forwarded the following comments: "It's frustrating to see that these
kinds of 'population decline' arguments are being used to shift the focus away
from the ongoing need to support effective family planning programs. World
population growth over the last half century is unparalleled throughout history,
and, unfortunately, is not yet on the verge of a decline. The United Nations
projections portray a future world population between 7.7 and 11.2 billion by
the mid-21st century (we are currently at about 5.9 billion). These projections
are lower than previous estimates and were revised downward to reflect earlier
than expected declines in family size in some countries, and that is wonderful
news. Unfortunately, this recent downward revision has caused some journalists
and analysts to claim that population growth is no longer a concern, and to call
for an end to financial support for family planning programs. But the need has
never been greater: more than 100 million married women in developing countries
have expressed an unmnet need for family planning, and the young age structure
in many countries means that the number of women entering their childbearing
years is increasing at a more rapid rate than world population -- at about 2%,
or 24 million a year. Now, more than ever, we need to strengthen our commitment
to international family planning programs. PAI's fact sheet, 'What Birth
Dearth,' illustrates these points very well."

Good Luck -- It's a complex issue, but one well worth the time and effort needed
to understand it.

Bill Bradlee
Sound Science Initiative Data Services Coordinator
Union of Concerned Scientists
2 Brattle Square
Cambridge, MA 02238-9105
Ph. 617 547-5552   Fax 617 864-9405
web: http://www.ucsusa.org.ca/~jwalker/course.htmr