5.4. Demand scenario results

The energy demand during the year 2005, 2010 and 2015 is estimated based on the various scenarios discussed earlier. Results of these analyses are

Scenario I —the base case scenario: The optimal allocations of resources for various tasks, based on maximisation of efficiency criteria for the base case scenario, are listed in Table 6.1 (for the year 2005), Table 6.2 (for the year 2010) and Table 6.3 (for the year 2015). The remnant renewable resources for each task are computed and listed in these tables.


Table 6.4 presents sectorwise projections for all fuels. Overall energy use increases by 26.29% over current levels, with a nearly 54.66% increase in the use of electricity and a small increase in the annual consumption of fuel wood. Sectorwise, industrial (67.64%), transport (51.48%) and agricultural sectors (48.98%) dominate and show the strongest growth in consumption. While, consumption in domestic sector increases only slightly, as an increase in the information dissemination would result in the substitution of more efficient cook stoves and fuels, such as biogas, for cooking and water heating purposes.

Scenario II : The results of Scenario II are presented in Table 7.1 (year 2005), Table 7.2 (year 2010) and Table 7.3 (year 2015). Sectorwise projection is listed in Table 7.4. The increasing energy intensity per unit of industrial output, which is assumed in this case, leads to overall energy demand that is nearly 1852.78 million units (mkWh) higher in 2015 than in the base case, and industrial demand that is 20% higher than in the base case. The primary fuels for which demand is higher in this case are electricity, diesel and petrol. This scenario illustrates the effect of not investing in efficient devices as industrial output expands.

Scenario III —transformation case: Tables 8.1–8.3 list the optimal allocation of resources for various tasks in the transformation scenario. Table 8.4 lists sectorwise demand. It indicates that, there is a substantial change in the sectoral shares of energy consumption by 2015, relative to the base case, and a change in the pattern of fuel use as well. The domestic and transport sectors in the transformation case use substantially less energy than in the base case, as a result of significant efficiency improvements. Industrial sector on the other hand uses 9.4% more energy than in the base case due to higher rates of energy growth and lower rate of efficiency improvement.

Scenario IV : Table 9.1 (optimal allocation for the year 2005), Table 9.2 (year 2010), Table 9.3 (year 2015) and Table 9.4 (sectorwise energy demand) show that demand in this scenario is significantly higher than any of the cases discussed earlier. This scenario is based on the energy consumption norms of the state. Overall energy consumption in 2015 is 36.32% higher than in the base case, and is 54.6% of base year demand. Unlike in the previous scenarios, fuel wood consumption does raise modestly in this scenario as a result of the large number of households.

The domestic sector shows 26.05% higher consumption than in the base case, while the industrial sector also shows similar increase of 29.81%. The commercial and services sector shows growth of 86.74%, the highest growth among all sectors. Scenario V; Scenario IV + efficiency improvements scenario: The efficiency improvements inclusion in Scenario IV, by relatively simple efficiency improvement measures proposed, save over 29.91% of energy per year by 2015, when compared with Scenario IV (case without the improvements). Results of this scenario are listed in Tables 10.1–10.4, respectively