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4.6. Assumptions
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4.6.1. Scenario I—base case scenario
The base case demand projections assume that energy
consumption is basically determined by the growth rate of the
population and level of development in the region. The
dependency of energy demand was modelled, quite simply as a
direct relationship, between demand and population. For this
purpose, to project population growth rate, population data
provided by directorate of census operation for last 30 years
(1961–2001) has been used. The energy growth rate used in the
base case and transformation case, was based on the
information provided by The Planning Unit, District Planning
Division, Uttara Kannada Zilla Parishad at Karwar. The energy
growth estimate used in Scenario I (base case) and Scenario II is
based on the assumption that policies of 1990s and 2000 will be
maintained.
In the base case scenario, changes in demand are assumed to
follow changes in key driving parameters. For the domestic
sector, future demand was assumed to be proportional to
population growth, that is, in the range of 2.07–2.34% per year.
Agricultural and commercial changes in demand are linked to
growth in overall economy. For the industrial sector, demand in
each subsector/group was assumed to increase in proportion to
growth in industrial production. Average industrial and overall
energy growth levels were assumed to be around 2.8 and 2.45%
per year between 2000 and 2015.
4.6.2. Scenario II—high-energy intensity
In Scenario II, for industrial sector, 20% increase in the
intensity of useful energy consumption for thermal end use
(such as, direct heat, steam generation, etc.) between 2000 and
2005 and 30% increase between 2005 and 2015 is assumed. For
the end uses that require electricity (such as, motor, lighting,
etc.) a 10% increase from 2000 and 2005 is assumed, with a
further 10% increase over base year levels by 2015. The basis of
the growth in intensity assumed for the thermal end uses is that
Uttara Kannada’s regional economy is basically rural and
sluggish that characterises this scenario result in inadequate
utilisation of industrial capacity.
4.6.3. Scenario III—transformation case scenario
The transformation case scenario implies substantial
changes in attitude about energy consumption within the
region. In this aspect, this scenario is granted less apparent
probability of occurring than Scenario II. This scenario
assumes policies of savings and conservation in almost all
sectors, as well as, improvement in the efficiencies of energy
consumption and energy transformation equipment. In the
industrial sector, the amount of useful energy consumed per
unit industrial value added is assumed to decline by 2%
between 2000 and 2005, with further 2% decrease by 2015. The
result of this assumption is a reduction in the energy intensity
for the majority of end uses, and a major proportion of the
overall reduction are in end uses that require heat (such as rural
industries-cashew processing, etc.). In the domestic sector,
3.5% growth in the electricity consumption per household for
end uses, such as, illumination, domestic appliances, etc., is
assumed for the period between 2000 and 2015. This increase is
based on the growth on income and therefore on the growth in
overall economic consumption per capita. For the cooking end
use, it is assumed that at least 50% of households using fuel
wood, LPG and electricity as fuel by 2010 will have energy
efficient devices than those in place of 2000. These efficient
devices are assumed to have efficiencies of 35% (wood stoves),
78% (electric) compared with 2000 efficiencies of 7–8% (wood
devices) and 60% (electric), respectively. Also, it is assumed
that at least 15% of total population would switch over to biogas
devices for cooking purposes. (Calculations show [29,30] that
biogas from dung resource is sufficient to meet demand of 30%
of the population.)
4.6.4. Scenario IV—state growth rate
The intent here is to develop a scenario for Uttara Kannada
district based on state energy consumption norms. The
projection of industrial and total energy consumption norms
(industrial, agriculture, etc.) was used. The average growth is
significantly higher in this case than in the base case (5.74% per
year for industrial and 4.0% for overall). The growth rate in coal
consumption is about 2.35%, kerosene 3.26%, electricity
8.51%, LPG 19.46%, fuel wood 1.95% and agricultural
residues about 3.85% (these growth rates are computed from
time series data by regression analyses method). Directorate of
Census operation projections were used for total population,
persons per household and rural/urban fractions.
4.6.5. Scenario V; Scenario IV + efficiency improvements
case
This scenario, in addition to policies of Scenario IV, assumes
the efficiency gains that are quite achievable for a given
technology. In the domestic sector, most households still use
incandescent bulbs (about 92% of sampled households in five
taluks of Uttara Kannada district). The efficiency of lighting
devices is assumed to increase through the introduction of
compact fluorescent lamps (CFL). These devices, which
produce nearly five times the light per unit energy input
compared to incandescent bulbs, and have nearly eight times
the life, are assumed to provide 5% of lighting by 2005, and
10% by 2015. These CFL’s have relatively higher initial costs.
But taking into consideration the energy saved (due to low
wattage requirement), and longer life, calculations indicate
saving of about 52% over a period of time. The fuel efficient
cooking and water heating devices show saving of about 27%[28,29]. Solar water heaters in coastal taluks of Uttara Kannada
district are found to be viable alternatives. For cooking devices,
this scenario assumes that more efficient stoves replace
traditional stoves, as in the Transformation scenario. In
addition to this, 15% adoption of solar hot water devices by
2010 is assumed. The efficiency of fuel use in services and
commercial sector is assumed to improve for all fuels by 10%
(2005) and 20% (2015), relative to base year results.
