Subject: World energy prospects to 2020 The following paper I have just drafted, read in conjunction with, in particular, the "Oil Supply" section of the IEA paper on World Energy Prospects to 2020 prepared for the March/April G8 Energy Ministers'Meeting in Moscow which can be download in full from <<http://www.iea.org/world/index.htmnnaissances/index2.html>http://www.iea.org/world/index.htmnnaissances/index2.html> may help focus minds on the problem, challenge and bioenergy opportunity they indicate and, for Ben Evans and others, make it less "difficult to convey this message.". Incidentally, I understand that with short rotation coppice the "bioenergy derived carbon cycle" is not "tens of years" but only three or four, while with bagasse, for example, it is only one! Regards, Thomas J Stubbing PLEASE NOTE: When printing the Oil Supply section of the IEA paper the 2020 column in Table 1 - Oil Supply 1996-2020 may be omitted, especially if A4 paper is used, Bbut the figures can be entered in the margin by hand.. WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS 1. Introduction: Before the industrial revolution such industry as existed burnt charcoal produced from wood, for example to extract metals from ores. For some years after coal began to be mined depletion of forests for charcoal production continued, while today felling for construction, paper and furniture making and clearing for agricultural purposes is still reducing the world’s forested area. The discovery of oil enabled road and air transport to develop and with the added use of natural gas our dependency on fossil fuels is now virtually complete. 2. Fossil Fuel Reserves: Until recently the International Energy Agency (IEA) took the view that fossil fuel reserves, in particular oil, would continue to be found in sufficient quantity to maintain global development but, as the ‘Oil Supply Prospects’ section of their March 1988 paper on ‘WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS TO 2020’ shows, it now considers that finding further major new reserves is unlikely and that an increasing supply of ‘Unidentified Unconventional Oil’ will be needed. 3. “Business as Usual”: The IEA paper is based on a ‘business as usual’ scenario and assumes rising living standards internationally, with those in underdeveloped countries, many with large populations, increasing more rapidly than elsewhere. The ‘Oil Supply Profiles 1996-2030’ graph shown on page 2 of the Oil Supply Prospects section of the IEA paper indicates that, assuming ‘business as usual’, in 2009 the OPEC Middle East countries will again supply more than half of the world’s crude oil. The last time this occurred was from 1971 to 1977, when the oil price rose from around $50 to almost $400/tonne between 1970 and 1980 with dire political and economic consequences which lasted until new, mainly Alaskan and North Sea oil supplies came on stream and the price fell back to today’s around $120/tonne. This time, however, the IEA expects that problem to become permanent. The graph also shows that total world oil supply is expected to increase almost in line with total ‘liquids’ demand until around 2013 and then to decline until, by 2030, conventional oil will meet less than half of total demand, with a ‘Non-Conventional Liquids Supply’ equal to today’s total conventional oil production expected to satisfy the remainder. 4. Future “Liquids” and Natural Gas Supply: Having pointed out the effects of the Kyoto treaty in relation to the projected ‘business as usual’ increase in oil and other fossil fuel consumption and consequent CO2 emissions and having also, in respect of oil, predicted the enormous 2030 ‘Non-Conventional Liquids Supply’ requirement, the IEA paper’s concluding Summary offers no clear answer either to the ‘liquids’ shortfall or to the parallel decline in natural gas production it expects to begin after 2020. Fossil fuels were originally created by photosynthesis, i.e. by sunlight acting on carbon dioxide and water during the creation of primeval forests and, if ‘business as usual’ is to continue and catastrophy avoided, that process now needs to be exploited without delay through a global planting programme to produce the wood and other biomass from which in particular the transportation but also the industrial and domestic fuels of the future can be produced by pyrolysis or gasification. 5. The Significance of Drying: The formation of fossil fuels from biomass involved the slow removal of most of the ‘green’ material’s around 85% moisture content, leaving the dry matter to change chemically into coal, oil and natural gas. Because the millennia required for that natural process are not available to us but instead only around thirty years, a pre-requisite for success in quickly converting the newly planted biomass to transportation and other fuels is to dry it using the smallest possible proportion of the dry matter’s energy content prior to its combustion as a solid fuel, its gasification to produce a natural gas replacement or its pyrolysis to produce biodiesel. 6. Conclusions: 1. If the IEA is right, there is no time to lose! 2. Energy efficiency in general must be improved and wood, paper, agricultural, municipal and similar wastes and sewage and other sludges must be fully exploited as sources of renewable energy in order to gain time. 3. A global biomass planting programme must be started now, and 4. Superheated steam drying with energy recycling should be used to enhance the efficiency of biomass processing. Thomas J Stubbing HEAT-WIN LIMITED Spout House, Bitterley, Ludlow, Shropshire SY8 3HQ (GB) Tel. +44 (0)1584 890 827 Fax. +44(0)1584 890 808 E-mail: heat-win@mcmail.com Web Site: <<http://www.dryers-airless.mcmail.conaissances/index2.html>--------------2eedce14c2340bcf564d28c dcontent-type: text/" eudora="autourl">http://www.dryers-airless.mcmail.comaissances/index2.html> --------------2EEDCE14C2340BCF564D28CD Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Dear bioenergy list readers, BEN EVANS wrote to the list on this subject yesterday: > > "To speed up the evoloutionary growth of moral reasoning capacity I > propose some 'Biological intervention'! simply leave a group of > fossil fuel lobbyists on a deserted island with a few tons of coal. > I wonder if they would be more appreciative of the uses of > biomass after a few weeks? > > Seriously, I do not think that people are capable of understanding > the capabilities of bioenergy beyond the domestic log fires they > remember as children. We know that a bioenergy derived > carbon cycle is tens of years long rather than thousands of years > like fossil fuels but it is difficult to convey this message" The following paper I have just drafted, read in conjunction with, in particular, the "Oil Supply" section of the IEA paper on World Energy Prospects to 2020 prepared for the March/April G8 Energy Ministers'Meeting in Moscow which can be download in full from <<http://www.iea.org/irless.mcmail.comaissances/index2.html>http://www.iea.org/world/index.htmomaissances/index2.html> may help focus minds on the problem, challenge and bioenergy opportunity they indicate and, for Ben Evans and others, make it less "difficult to convey this message.". Incidentally, I understand that with short rotation coppice the "bioenergy derived carbon cycle" is not "tens of years" but only three or four, while with bagasse, for example, it is only one! Regards, Thomas J Stubbing PLEASE NOTE: When printing the Oil Supply section of the IEA paper the 2020 column in Table 1 - Oil Supply 1996-2020 may be omitted, especially if A4 paper is used, Bbut the figures can be entered in the margin by hand.. WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS 1. Introduction: Before the industrial revolution such industry as existed burnt charcoal produced from wood, for example to extract metals from ores. For some years after coal began to be mined depletion of forests for charcoal production continued, while today felling for construction, paper and furniture making and clearing for agricultural purposes is still reducing the world’s forested area. The discovery of oil enabled road and air transport to develop and with the added use of natural gas our dependency on fossil fuels is now virtually complete. 2. Fossil Fuel Reserves: Until recently the International Energy Agency (IEA) took the view that fossil fuel reserves, in particular oil, would continue to be found in sufficient quantity to maintain global development but, as the ‘Oil Supply Prospects’ section of their March 1988 paper on ‘WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS TO 2020’ shows, it now considers that finding further major new reserves is unlikely and that an increasing supply of ‘Unidentified Unconventional Oil’ will be needed. 3. “Business as Usual”: The IEA paper is based on a ‘business as usual’ scenario and assumes rising living standards internationally, with those in underdeveloped countries, many with large populations, increasing more rapidly than elsewhere. The ‘Oil Supply Profiles 1996-2030’ graph shown on page 2 of the Oil Supply Prospects section of the IEA paper indicates that, assuming ‘business as usual’, in 2009 the OPEC Middle East countries will again supply more than half of the world’s crude oil. The last time this occurred was from 1971 to 1977, when the oil price rose from around $50 to almost $400/tonne between 1970 and 1980 with dire political and economic consequences which lasted until new, mainly Alaskan and North Sea oil supplies came on stream and the price fell back to today’s around $120/tonne. This time, however, the IEA expects that problem to become permanent. The graph also shows that total world oil supply is expected to increase almost in line with total ‘liquids’ demand until around 2013 and then to decline until, by 2030, conventional oil will meet less than half of total demand, with a ‘Non-Conventional Liquids Supply’ equal to today’s total conventional oil production expected to satisfy the remainder. 4. Future “Liquids” and Natural Gas Supply: Having pointed out the effects of the Kyoto treaty in relation to the projected ‘business as usual’ increase in oil and other fossil fuel consumption and consequent CO2 emissions and having also, in respect of oil, predicted the enormous 2030 ‘Non-Conventional Liquids Supply’ requirement, the IEA paper’s concluding Summary offers no clear answer either to the ‘liquids’ shortfall or to the parallel decline in natural gas production it expects to begin after 2020. Fossil fuels were originally created by photosynthesis, i.e. by sunlight acting on carbon dioxide and water during the creation of primeval forests and, if ‘business as usual’ is to continue and catastrophy avoided, that process now needs to be exploited without delay through a global planting programme to produce the wood and other biomass from which in particular the transportation but also the industrial and domestic fuels of the future can be produced by pyrolysis or gasification. 5. The Significance of Drying: The formation of fossil fuels from biomass involved the slow removal of most of the ‘green’ material’s around 85% moisture content, leaving the dry matter to change chemically into coal, oil and natural gas. Because the millennia required for that natural process are not available to us but instead only around thirty years, a pre-requisite for success in quickly converting the newly planted biomass to transportation and other fuels is to dry it using the smallest possible proportion of the dry matter’s energy content prior to its combustion as a solid fuel, its gasification to produce a natural gas replacement or its pyrolysis to produce biodiesel. 6. Conclusions: 1. If the IEA is right, there is no time to lose! 2. Energy efficiency in general must be improved and wood, paper, agricultural, municipal and similar wastes and sewage and other sludges must be fully exploited as sources of renewable energy in order to gain time. 3. A global biomass planting programme must be started now, and 4. Superheated steam drying with energy recycling should be used to enhance the efficiency of biomass processing. Thomas J Stubbing HEAT-WIN LIMITED Spout House, Bitterley, Ludlow, Shropshire SY8 3HQ (GB) Tel. +44 (0)1584 890 827 Fax. +44(0)1584 890 808 E-mail: heat-win@mcmail.com Web Site: <<http://www.dryers-airless.mcmail.comaissances/index2.html> ------------7a60cfb1a69f55bb50dd5010 content-type: text/" eudora="autourl">http://www.dryers-airless.mcmail.comaissances/index2.html> ------------7A60CFB1A69F55BB50DD5010 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii; name="oilsup.htm" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline; filename="oilsup.htm" EXTRACT FROM A PAPER ON 'WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS TO 2020' PREPARED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY FOR THE G8 MINISTERS' MEETING IN MOSCOW, 31 MARCH - 1 APRIL 1998 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- (PLEASE NOTE, THE 2020 COLUMN IN TABLE 1 HAS BEEN COPIED TO THE LEFT OF THE 1996 COLUMN TO ENABLE IT TO BE INCLUDED IN AN A4 PRINTED WIDTH.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- Oil Supply Prospects Prospects for oil production have been analysed by region, paying particular attention to the distinction between OPEC Middle East and all other producers. Account has been taken of estimates of conventional oil reserves and the production profiles for oil in each region. Oil reserve estimates are inevitably uncertain and studies normally report oil reserve estimates as ranges, rather than as point estimates. For example the United States Geological Survey in 1993 reported a range of 2.1 to 2.8 trillion (1012) barrels for worldwide recoverable reserves of conventional oil. Experts differ on these figures; some take a static view, emphasizing geological and statistical issues that lead to a low reserve estimate, and some take a dynamic view, arguing that rapidly advancing technology will help discover more reserves and make a wider range of already known deposits economically recoverable. Experience in mature oil regions indicates that production builds to a peak when approximately half of the ultimately recoverable reserves has been produced, and then falls away. The application of new technologies, such as horizontal drilling and 3D seismic analysis, determines the ultimate size of recoverable reserves. It can extend the peak and delay or slow the decline in production. But eventually production falls, given a fixed oil resource. This has been the experience, for example, in the United States. This approach has been applied on a regional basis. It indicates that a peaking of conventional oil production could occur between years 2010 and 2020, depending on assumptions for the level of reserves. Oil production outside OPEC Middle East would peak before OPEC Middle East production implying a greater reliance on OPEC Middle East supply between the two peaks. A plateau in oil production for OPEC Middle East of 47.9 mbd has been assumed, rather than a sharp peak, following an IEA study. BAU projections for oil production profiles for the world, OPEC Middle East and all other areas are shown in Figure 9, assuming ultimate recoverable reserves of conventional oil of 2.3 trillion barrels. In this figure, world demand for liquid fuels has been extended to 2030 at the average growth rate of 1995-2020 in order to illuminate the longer-term oil supply picture. Table 1 gives details of supplies for conventional and non-conventional oil. The transition from conventional to non-conventional oil as the marginal supply in 2015 is assumed to raise the oil price from $17-25 (1990 money values) over the period 2010 to 2015. The use of non-conventional oil expands rapidly after 2015 as it meets the increase in demand for liquid fuels and compensates for the decline in conventional oil production. The extent of the rise in the world oil price is in some doubt. To produce large and increasing volumes of oil from non-conventional sources will require many major multi-billion dollar projects. Some unevenness in supply availability is possible because of the long lead times required for these big projects and the difficulties in matching supply to demand in what promises to be a highly competitive market. It is necessary to distinguish fluctuations in the world oil price from its longer term average level. Some short-term price movements could well arise from supply-demand mismatches, as non-conventional oil sources take over the marginal supplier role. But opinion on the effect of this changeover on the longer-run oil price is mixed. Some observers expect long run supply costs from major non-conventional oil production projects to be higher than current long run supply costs from non-OPEC sources, lifting the world oil price to a new long-run level of $25-$30 per barrel. Others suggest there will be no upward pressure on the world oil price. An upward ramp from $17/bbl to $25/bbl has been assumed from 2010 to 2015 as a response to the transition to non-conventional oil, with the oil price remaining at $25/bbl after 2015. All prices are quoted in the money values of 1990. Table 1 Oil Supply 1996-2020 Assuming a Lower Estimate of Conventional Oil Reserves - 2.3 trillion barrels million barrels per day 2020 1996 2000 2010 2020 Total Demand For Liquid Fuels 110.1 72.0 78.3 94.5 110.1 Total Natural Gas Liquids, Processing Gains 20.6 9.3 11.6 15.5 20.6 and Identified Unconventional Oil Conventional Crude Oil Middle East OPEC 45.2 17.2 20.1 40.9 45.2 World excluding Middle East OPEC 27.0 45.5 46.6 38.0 27.0 Total Crude Oil 72.2 62.7 66.7 78.9 72.2 World Liquids Supply excluding Unidentified Unconventional Oil 92.8 72.0 78.3 94.5 92.8 Balancing Item - Unidentified Unconventional Oil 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 ----------------------- Figure 9 Oil Supply Profiles 1996-2030 Natural gas prices are increased along with oil prices because the two products are close competitors. The coal price has been adjusted upwards to account for the transport cost element. A higher view of oil reserves would assume an ultimate stock of recoverable conventional oil of 3 trillion barrels, compared with the lower assumption of 2.3 trillion barrels (see Table 1). This view postpones the production peak of conventional oil and the associated rise in world oil price to 2020. The effect of the lower oil price on world oil demand is estimated to be small. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (The full IEA paper can be viewed at <http://www.dryers-airless.mcmail.comaissances/index2.html<http://www.iea.org/irless.mcmail.comaissances/index2.html>www.iea.org/g8/world/index.htm) --------------7A60CFB1A69F55BB50DD5010-- Bioenergy List SPONSORS and ARCHIVES: http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/bioenergy-list-archive/